Over the next twenty years, more than 40,000 of the latest generation of aircraft will be delivered worldwide, particularly in Asia, with a turnover of $4 trillion. Half will be used to replace older aircraft, and the other half will support the companies’ expansion plans. While The sector will need another 2.3 million workers which will be added to those replacing the now-retired profiles. Taken together, reports from Airbus, Boeing (the two giants dominating the market) and Avolon (a major aircraft leasing company) show a sector poised for record post-Covid growth.

The Sector

In 2023, the Airbus Global Market Forecast calculates that if global domestic flights already exceeded supply (+8%) before the pandemic, there is still 11% potential for recovery on the international side (with significant regional differences: the US has this did). has already closed the gap). Air transport accounts for 4.1% of GDP, has a turnover of $3.5 trillion and employs 87.7 million people remembers the European manufacturer. “This year, the number of flights is only 3% lower than before Corona, and we expect a full recovery in passenger numbers by next year,” said Darren Hulst, vice president of commercial marketing at Boeing.

The middle class

The optimism is also strengthened by the demographic change that will support travel demand in the coming years: By 2040, the global middle class will grow by 500 million people. There are half a billion potential new customers not only for the economy class of the airlines, but also for the premium, business and first class. According to Boeing forecasts, about 2.28 million new employees will be needed by 2042, not only for pilots and flight attendants, but also for maintenance technicians, technology experts, etc.

The Scenarios

It should be noted that the market could be affected by various factors such as wars, health crises and diplomatic disputes over the next twenty years. But the forecasts from Airbus, Boeing and Avolon clearly point to the delivery of more than 40,000 new aircraft. The leasing company projects that by 2042, 95% of the world’s fleet will be equipped with state-of-the-art, low-emission technology. As for deliveries Avolon calculates 44,300 if you only consider the passengers.

The area of ​​​​the single corridor

For Airbus, 40,850 passenger and cargo aircraft will be delivered over the period 2023-2042. At Boeing – which also includes regional jets – deliveries increase to 42,595. In fact, the number of operational twin-engine aircraft will tend to double in twenty years: both aerospace giants even forecast a decline from 24,500 aircraft in service in 2022 to 46,560 (Airbus) and 48,600 (Boeing) respectively. Eight out of ten new deliveries will be single-aisle jets for short and medium-haul flights.

The areas

All insiders agree that the demand will come from the East. China and the rest of Asia will dominate the new aircraft market. At Airbus, for example, 46% of deliveries to airlines will be made in and around Beijing. At Boeing, the share is 42%. Depending on the forecast, China alone will receive between a fifth and a quarter of the latest generation jets by 2042, more or less as much as all of Europe. Africa continues to bring up the rear with 2-3%.